It looks like a lot of rain headed that way, not just from Joaquin, but from a front and 99L.
GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation Forecast:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=apcpn&fh=120
GFS Forecast:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn
It appears the wind could be a moderate to possibly strong tropical storm based on the SHIPS model. SHIPS has it reaching about hurricane strength before cooler water and high shear lessen it. It looks like the GFS has it transitioning to post-tropical before landfall. I don't know how to interpret it all, but the increase of shear from the south might simply be due to transition and not really hurt it much. (not like 40 plus knots of shear would impact a tropical storm) Basically it seems like lots of rainfall, enough wind to down a lot of trees and knock out some power, beach erosion and rip currents. But pay attention to the NHC. (They have not gotten to posting about the impacts to land yet in the public advisory, but the WPC has a lot of rain forecast. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml)
For the 18Z run on Monday, here it is shown turning post-tropical before landfall:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/15092818/21.html
Warm core to cold core.
From: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
But that doesn't mean less rain. Impacts could simply be broader than a tropical storm actually.
If you are talking about arriving Monday, October 5th, I imagine there would be a lot of tree limbs being picked up. I have no idea how fast the fresh water drains or how rivers might be impacted.
As for surprises, we'll have to see how he does with greater heat content and less shear for the next several days.
Floater:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/11L_floater.html
You can see a lot of convection right now, but also how it is currently being impacted by a lot of shear still. We'll have to see how he does if shear lessens as is forecast.
TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015
Satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity
associated with the depression has increased and become better
organized during the past several hours. In addition, the low-level
center now appears to have moved closer to the convection than it
was earlier. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
were 2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is set at that value,
making the cyclone Tropical Storm Joaquin. This intensity analysis
also agrees with the reconnaissance aircraft data from earlier today
that showed winds just under tropical-storm force.
The center of Joaquin has been moving southwestward during the last
several hours, but it is expected to begin moving slowly westward
overnight. This westward track is forecast to continue for a couple
of days while a mid-level ridge remains to the north of the storm.
After that time, a trough is anticipated to amplify over the eastern
United States, which should cause Joaquin to turn northward and
accelerate. There is considerable spread in the models, mainly due
to the timing of when and how fast the storm makes the northward
turn, due to differences in the evolution of the trough. In
general, the guidance envelope has shifted southward for the first
couple of days and then westward after that time. The official
track forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but additional
southward and westward adjustment may be needed in subsequent
advisories.
Northwesterly shear of about 20 kt is currently affecting Joaquin,
causing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located to the
southeast of the center. The shear is expected to lessen some
during the next couple of days, which in combination with warm water
and high relative humidity values should allow Joaquin to
strengthen. The official intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, but is lower than the intensity model consensus at
days 3-5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 26.7N 70.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 26.9N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 27.2N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 27.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 28.6N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 32.4N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 38.0N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
SHIPS output for 8pm EDT on Monday:
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* ELEVEN AL112015 09/29/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 45 51 57 63 65 59 52
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 45 51 57 63 65 59 52
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 44 52 63 69 63 51
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 23 20 19 15 12 16 7 4 11 21 28 31 43
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 5 10 11 6
SHEAR DIR 343 356 3 18 18 13 352 294 218 209 196 195 186
SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.9 26.9 23.2
POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 162 161 159 155 151 144 136 136 125 95
ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 139 137 136 133 129 126 122 115 116 108 84
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -53.3 -53.9
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 5 4 2 1
700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 62 65 64 67 66 62 58 49 46 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 14 18 15 15
850 MB ENV VOR 54 41 31 33 27 21 40 64 111 116 137 95 65
200 MB DIV 8 0 8 4 0 10 36 41 67 57 56 47 91
700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 20 53 85 19
LAND (KM) 782 783 788 780 770 723 668 663 610 468 311 223 113
LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.6 29.8 31.3 33.2 35.9 39.4
LONG(DEG W) 70.2 70.7 71.2 71.7 72.2 72.8 73.4 73.6 73.8 73.7 73.7 73.4 73.0
STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 3 3 5 7 8 12 16 17
HEAT CONTENT 60 48 44 46 50 57 61 54 31 20 17 8 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ -4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. 1. -2. -2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 21. 27. 33. 35. 29. 22.
** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN 09/29/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN 09/29/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN 09/29/2015 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/ |