| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/083529.shtml?5day?large#contents (where hurricane warnings are not noted because the software can't draw them) Satellite Imagery: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL062015 http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=06L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 EUMETSAT: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/ HURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 Fred's overall cloud pattern has only changed slightly since the previous advisory. However, the inner-core convection has increased markedly, including the development of a well-defined, vertically deep, 15 n mi diameter eye as noted in recent AMSR and AMSU passive microwave satellite data. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB, a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T4.4/75 kt, and a NHC objective Dvorak T-number of T4.5/77 kt. Fred has maintained a steady northwestward motion but has slowed down some, and is now moving 305/10 kt. The track forecast and rationale remain unchanged from the previous advisory. Water vapor-derived winds indicate that the break in the subtropical ridge to the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands is beginning to fill in based on previous southwesterly winds now having been replaced by east-northeasterly mid- to upper-level winds. Fred is expected to continue its northwestward motion for the next 12-24 hours and pass near or over the Cape Verde Islands of Boa Vista this morning, and over or near Sao Nicolau, Sao Vicente, and Santo Antao late this afternoon and into tonight. As the ridge builds steadily westward to the north of Fred, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the west-northwest by 36 hours and beyond. This will bring the cyclone over progressively cooler waters and into increasing vertical wind shear conditions. The official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks. The vertical shear is expected to remain quite low at less than 5 kt for the next 12 hours as Fred is passing through the Cape Verde Islands archipelago. With ocean temperatures remaining above 27 deg C during that time, some additional strengthening is possible. After the hurricane clears the Cape Verde Islands, however, the combination of decreasing SSTs, decreasing mid-level moisture, and increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear should induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model through 36 hours, and is lower than IVCN from 48-120 hours. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 15.6N 22.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 16.6N 24.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 17.9N 26.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 19.0N 28.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 19.7N 29.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 20.8N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 23.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart HURRICANE FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015 ...HURRICANE FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 22.9W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF RABIL IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fred was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 22.9 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today as Fred moves through the Cape Verde Islands. A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today as Fred moves through the Cape Verde Islands. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the Cape Verde Islands this morning, with hurricane conditions by this afternoon. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate on the island of Boa Vista during the next couple of hours. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. These rains could produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart http://hurricanes.gov/ |