Re: Radars
Posted by TuffyE on 8/30/2015, 6:16 pm
It's an interesting analytical thing at this point.  It sure is just about impossible to see any circulation (or any PART of a counterclockwise one) on the sats.  What we see is apparently just sheared "outflow" from something.  However, Key West has had continued winds out of the SOUTH all day as far as I know.  Their radar might be seen to show that the rain movement to the west of KW has been towards the south.  If that's all we had, we'd call the CoC to be just west of KW and, perhaps, almost stationary up against the big flow.  

For practical purposes, all that matters is the effects of all of that moisture being ripped from this area and up into Florida (and beyond to us, Shalista...I'm in Sumter).  Still, as a TS watcher, I think a low-level circulation continues to exist and, although HIGHLY unlikely, it is trying to cross that big flow into the Gulf.  There's not even enough energy there to exist afterwards, I don't think, but it is there and I would expect to see a central Gulf area of low pressure behind that front at some point.

It would be very interesting to know how NHC does the post-storm analysis on this.  Mine would be that we lost it crossing Hispanola, it maintained a strong westerly motion across northern Cuba and passed west of KW before hitting the wall on that "front".  That's all of the story so far.

Our models are amazing, but have a continued tendency to recurve storms prematurely west of 79 and "bounce" as they receive contradictory data.  That gives NHC some problems with consistency and continuation that put them in some tough spots.  Their pressure to warn at the possibility of a US landfall and be reluctant to back off of it often leaves us with "fish" that "veered" on the East coast and GoM "surprises.

Nevertheless, they didn't miss the impact of this one, it doesn't seem.  For them, it has been South Florida for a long time.  I don't think they have the storm, but they have the impact.  The storm risk is low enough that it's good enough, I suppose.  Anything that escapes the Florida/recurve/warning communications cycle leaves time to deal with the Gulf coast.  I suppose they know that.  
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In this thread:
Erika's bands? - sandy, 8/30/2015, 4:30 am
  • Radars - Chris in Tampa, 8/30/2015, 5:51 am
    • Re: Radars - HURRICANEHIRAM, 8/30/2015, 8:28 am
      • Re: Radars - Chris in Tampa, 8/30/2015, 8:50 am
        • Re: Radars - TuffyE, 8/30/2015, 6:16 pm
        • Re: Radars - Shalista, 8/30/2015, 11:10 am
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