Fred Strengthening; Hurricane warning issued for Cape Verde Islands
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/30/2015, 11:28 am
Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/144844.shtml?5day?large#contents
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
...FRED STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 19.9W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Meteorological Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cape Verde Islands. This replaces the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch that were previously in effect.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 19.9 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to move through the Cape Verde Islands on Monday through early Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Fred is forecast to become a hurricane before reaching the Cape Verde Islands on Monday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected within a portion of the warning area by Monday afternoon.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches on Monday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Brown
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015
Visible satellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the tropical cyclone continues to organize. A curved band of convection now wraps almost completely around the center and recent images show that a small CDO feature has developed. An earlier WindSat microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined inner core. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are around 3.0, and based on these the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.
The environment ahead of Fred appears conducive for strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. During that time, there will be sufficient mid-level moisture, the shear is expected to remain low, and the cyclone will be traversing sea surface temperatures of 27 to 28C. Therefore, steady strengthening is anticipated and the SHIPS and LGEM models bring Fred to hurricane status within 24 hours. Strengthening is also supported by the GFS and ECMWF models, which both show the cyclone deepening while it moves through the Cape Verde Islands. After 36 hours, lower sea surface temperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and a more stable environment should cause weakening.
Fred is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands. In a couple of days, the ridge is forecast to build westward, which should cause Fred to turn west-northwestward. As Fred weakens and become a more shallow cyclone late in the period, a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected. The NHC track is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models through 72 hours. Later in the period, the NHC forecast shows a weaker system moving more westward, and this track is along the southern edge of the guidance in best agreement with the ECMWF.
Based on this track and intensity forecast, the Meteorological Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning for those islands.
Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 13.4N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 14.3N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 15.7N 23.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.2N 25.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.3N 27.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 19.5N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 20.5N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 21.0N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$ Forecaster Brown |
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Fred Strengthening; Hurricane warning issued for Cape Verde Islands - Chris in Tampa, 8/30/2015, 11:28 am Post A Reply
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