T.D. Six forms SE of Cape Verde Islands; hurricane watch and tropical storm warning issued
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/30/2015, 1:55 am
Was 99L.

Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/053407.shtml?5day?large#contents






TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
130 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

The well-defined low pressure system located to the west of Conakry,
Guinea, has acquired sufficient organized convection to be
classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt
is based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt
from TAFB and two earlier ASCAT scatterometer passes indicating at
least 30 kt in the southern semicircle.

The initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt. The depression is
located south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends
westward across northwestern Africa and into the eastern Atlantic
for several hundred miles. However, a weakness is located in a
portion of the ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands due to
a pronounced mid-latitude trough noted in water vapor imagery
digging east-southeastward. This should allow the cyclone to move
northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands through 48 hours. After
that time, the NHC model guidance is in fair agreement on the
aforementioned trough lifting out, allowing the ridge to build
back in, which is expected to force the cyclone on a more westward
track. The NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models
TVCA and GFEX.

The depression is embedded within favorable environmental and
oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear of less
than 10 kt, a moist mid-troposphere, and sea-surface temperatures
greater than 28 deg C, which should allow for steady strengthening
for the next 48 hours or so. The main inhibiting factor is the
decreasing instability ahead of the cyclone after 24-36 hours.
However, the possibility still exists for the system to reach
hurricane status before or while it moves through the Cape Verde
Islands in 36-48 hours. For this reason, the Meteorological
Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cape Verdes.  The official
intensity forecast is basically a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM
models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0530Z 12.1N  18.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 12.7N  19.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  31/0000Z 13.9N  21.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  31/1200Z 15.3N  23.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  01/0000Z 16.6N  24.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  02/0000Z 18.3N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  03/0000Z 18.9N  32.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 19.3N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart






TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015
130 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 130 AM AST...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 18.4W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a
Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Cape
Verde Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cape Verde Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Verde Islands

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 130 AM AST (0530 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 18.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and
this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the
forecast track the depression is expected to move through the Cape
Verde Islands as a tropical storm on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this
morning.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach
the coast within the warning area by early Monday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Hurricane conditions are also
possible within the watch area by late Monday.

RAINFALL:  The depression is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches on Monday. These
rains could produce flash flooding and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart






http://hurricanes.gov/
185
In this thread:
T.D. Six forms SE of Cape Verde Islands; hurricane watch and tropical storm warning issued - Chris in Tampa, 8/30/2015, 1:55 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.