Erika Analysis II
Posted by
Jake on 8/28/2015, 7:46 pm
Erika's structure has been disrupted since early morning, with no banding or symmetry. Convection has pulsed well during the overnight enhanced by the diurnal pulse. Once again, strong pulse beginning across Hispaniola and close or over the fading small low level swirl.
The high terrain of Hispaniola will crush and dissipate any surface center tonight, as shear and land interaction will likely cause this to degrade into an open wave. However, some regeneration of this system is possible if convection continues to form along the vortex which remains strong in the 850-500mb. It's quite possible that a new center reforms north of Hispaniola.
Should upper air conditions become less hostile and redevelopment will occur if the mid level vortex remains north of Cuba, as steering is definitely more NW passed 70W. We will know more by morning and especially tomorrow!!
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