Erika forecasting a complete bust
Posted by jimw on 8/28/2015, 5:42 pm
This was simply a huge bust for the models,NHC and the media and this reliance only on models or maybe just bad judgement by forecasters was obvious. I do not know what NHC's protocol is for forecasters writing discussions but they clearly were not paying attention to the low level steering flow for a weak unstacked system. I tweeted to Mike Bettis at TWC during the first WUTV show and said simply "how do you know this wont just follow Danny's path" I think that was on the 23rd not sure but no reply. Meanwhile they were hyping hurricane potential for the S.E and there were even people on this board grabbing the GFDL solution and the horrible tropical model progs while dismissing the GFS. I blogged on the 26th how Hispaniola could destroy this system because I felt it clearly was not going well north of there as the models indicated. I do not have a PHD in meteorology and do not have nearly the resources NHC has but forgod sakes can't they see a weak system for what it is and understand it is not going to follow a 300mb steering flow wnw & nw with a shallow system? Anyways I plan to do a show tomarrow night at 8:00PM ET to discuss the Erika situation hope you will all join in http://www.hurricanecity.tv
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Erika forecasting a complete bust - jimw, 8/28/2015, 5:42 pm
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