Re: if this was just forming
Posted by HURRICANEHIRAM on 8/28/2015, 9:42 am
In my observations this morning and studying the visible sat I have notice like many of you a western movement on Erika. The question came up in my mind "Did we see this coming?" the answer is yes! Model from 2015082600 and 2015082612 actually had this system weak and oblivious to the upper level steering flow, not only is this compelling in the fact that it acted out exactly, but it is also a possibility that does models will play out. I have notice in the many years I have being observing this forum that we including my self have being caught up with the now and then time line, but in reality some of this model that run days in advance have being right on the money, well not all of them but some and I am pretty sure Jim can back me up on this.

Now lest get to business. Lets be honest to our self's, do you think that after applying all the info input into the gfs that it wasn't going to be fruitful? That is what is made for and to me it has being very evident that the model data collective is working.

Lets talk about Erika and her Future. Right now we can all agree that at this rate it has not much of a future according to the gfs. Upper level shear, dry air on the west half and huge mountains. It is clear that she is facing her demise. I think there is a chance that this actually will affect the united states in the upcoming days and the factors are in place , the north ridge, the upper level low on top of Florida and the frontal boundary stationary over the southeast. This are the factors of her survival. The question is "can she survive?" yes she can! "Can she redevelop?" yes she could, but were? I think she has a better chance over the Bahamas, if she moves into the gulf she wont be much more than a rain maker.   http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2015082600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animationhttp://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc2.cgi?time=2015082600&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animationhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flash-vis-long.htmlhttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-animated.gif

Please let me know what your thinking.
 
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if this was just forming - cypresstx, 8/28/2015, 6:26 am
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