Re: 1100PM Coordinates: 16.5N, 65.3W
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/28/2015, 4:25 am
"The center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it
appears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger
gyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix
producing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few
hours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial
position is based on a mean center of circulation."

Honestly I think that has been the case much of Thursday.

Depending on what center you pick, the models will go different places. I have an out there scenario. Hispaniola disrupts a circulation among the broader circulation helping Erika consolidate where the most intense convection is. Crazy, but who knows at this point. Nothing will be know for impacts beyond Hispaniola until after it.

There was the G-IV plane that should have data in the models.

"The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a
synoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical
models with a better depiction of the storm's environment.  These
data will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS."

Problem is, without a clear center, some models are rather useless if they start at the wrong center. Others don't start from an exact center, but I don't really know if specific information is given into it. For example, do they give the GFS any details of the storm specifically, or just let it initialize it however it will. They might not feed that kind of information into a global model. They probably don't. Of course some model base things off of the tracking from global models, so if a global model gets the track wrong, models using that information are going to also be wrong. It's a domino effect.
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1100PM Coordinates: 16.5N, 65.3W - LawKat, 8/27/2015, 10:55 pm
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