Important points about the cone
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/28/2015, 4:18 am
It's important to note that about 1/3 of the time, on average, the storm will be outside the cone. That is literally what the cone represents. I see so very many people, even meteorologists, make a big deal about the cone. Good when talking about uncertainty, but bad when they talk about how someone is not in it. Not being in the cone doesn't make you out of the woods, even short term.

Information about the cone:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

"Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time."

Charley in 2004 was a good example of paying too much attention to inside the cone, short term, although I'm not sure if Punta Gorda was in or out of the cone short term. I looked back at the images of the cone and it was on the edge. But the point is that people need to be aware even if they are not in the cone, because it might be too late to do anything by the time things become more clear.

Unfortunately a sad lesson for Dominica. They were not even close to being in the cone short term, and at no point was Dominica ever even in the cone for the entire history of Erika.

That brings up the other important point about the cone. That is the center point of the storm. A storm is not a point, even though that is often what it is reduced to in graphical forecasts. I suppose that is the easiest way to communicate the information, rather than adding wind swaths to the main imagery in some way, such as increasing the cone to also compensate for the size of the storm. The storm could be on the very edge of the cone, with you being hundreds of miles away, and you could still feel the impacts of the storm. Depending on how far away you actually are, potentially greatly, to a much greater extent potentially than most people in the cone even. Some seem to mistakenly believe if they are not in the cone, they are not going to be impacted by the storm. I think that is one of the most dangerous aspects. Some meteorologists are better than others at communicating that.

The NHC has that information as well under the track image for a storm:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/054717.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
Along with a link to the cone information page.
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1100PM Coordinates: 16.5N, 65.3W - LawKat, 8/27/2015, 10:55 pm
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