| Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12E/12E_floater.html Wide view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/imagery/cpac.html CPHC will take over once it crosses 140W: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/ HURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015 200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 Very cold cloud tops persist near the center of Ignacio, although the overall cloud pattern is not very symmetric and no eye is present in conventional satellite data. However, microwave images show an eye beneath the cirrus clouds, but not well established in the low-level channel. Current intensity estimates range from 75 to 90 kt, and since the cloud pattern isn't particularly well organized, I've elected to go on the low end of the estimates with 75 kt as the initial intensity. The initial motion estimate remains 290/11. A west-northwestward motion is expected to continue throughout the forecast period due to a strong subtropical ridge to the north of Ignacio producing a deep layer of east-southeasterly steering flow. Models are continuing to struggle with the strength of the ridge in the long range period, with a variety of solutions from the normally reliable global models. Since the track consensus is virtually unchanged, the NHC forecast will stay very close to the previous one and wait for a stronger signal before making any significant modifications. Further strengthening seems likely with Ignacio over the next couple of days with light-to-moderate easterly shear, warm water and a moist atmosphere. By days 3 and 5, thermodynamic and oceanic conditions are expected to become less favorable, with an increase in southwesterly shear, and gradual weakening is expected to occur during that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 12.6N 138.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 13.2N 139.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 14.2N 141.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 15.1N 143.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 15.9N 145.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 17.2N 147.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 31/0600Z 18.5N 150.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 20.0N 153.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake HURRICANE IGNACIO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015 200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015 ...IGNACIO QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 138.5W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ignacio was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 138.5 West. Ignacio is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |