Erika Analysis
Posted by Jake on 8/26/2015, 11:26 am
Although, mid level dry air has been advecting into the core during the last 48hrs, this has been lessoning since the overnight. Erika's structure was greatly affected by a marginally conducive and disruptive upper level winds. Thus choking the upward motion and ventilation.

However, morning visible shows an improved cloud structure with a large area of convection near the LLC. Deep layer moisture has been slowly increasing around Erika. In addition, upper air pattern has become somewhat less disruptive by allowing the convection to build closer to the center and increased inflow.

Erika is a large system and although it has a hostile upper environment during the next 48hrs, there are several factors that favor development and weakening. However, with the exception of her moving over Hispaniola, the environment favors slow strengthening as the OHC greatly increases on it's track and possible outflow channel to the north develops along with lighter shear over the system and a more saturated air mass.

Finally, deep layer ridge will remain north of the storm as it's forced W-WNW 14-17mph. This is slower and reduces decupling of the center as it encounters W-SW shear ahead. Weakness Eastern gulf western Bahamas

Strong tropical storm near PR. Bahamas should see hurricane Cat1, Florida could see even stronger storm will monitor! All depends on what interaction occurs with PR and Hispaniola.
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Erika Analysis - Jake, 8/26/2015, 11:26 am
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