| He's persistent and unpredictable so far. Hopefully unpredictable will not be the word if he impacts the islands. Closeup IR: http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/?satellite=GOES-E+HURRICANE&type=Animation&numframes=10&width=1000&height=500&info=ir&zoom=1&palette=ir2.pal&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=16.6&lon=-57.5 Some extra uncertainty in these storms. Danny for sure with its size but also Kilo near Hawaii which the models have been all over the place on. Because of Kilo's organization the models seem to be poor on that one, for any potential impacts to Hawaii and being just plain nutty at times, at least given how unorganized it has been, such as when some models had it becoming a category five hurricane. (They backed off some on that.) As fast as Danny strengthened and weakened and now seems to be on a comeback again possibly, I'd definitely be extra vigilant in the northeastern Lesser Antilles. If Danny is not impacted as much by shear and drier air, you never know what could happen in a short amount of time. I have no clue at all, but given we already saw it happen once, you never know. SHIPS intensity and shear output for 8pm on Saturday: * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 44 42 40 39 38 39 41 44 50 54 57 V (KT) LAND 55 48 44 42 40 39 38 39 41 44 50 54 57 V (KT) LGE mod 55 47 42 40 39 37 37 37 38 40 43 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 16 15 17 15 18 19 17 16 15 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 1 0 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 232 241 241 225 223 228 215 230 218 246 241 283 245 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.5 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 138 141 142 143 147 146 146 149 153 160 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 134 137 137 139 142 140 138 140 141 147 156 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 15 14 15 14 13 700-500 MB RH 40 39 38 37 38 40 39 40 39 38 43 47 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 3 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 6 4 -2 -9 -19 -22 -30 -64 -65 -69 -14 200 MB DIV 8 0 10 10 -2 -2 -17 -17 -15 -9 -5 23 17 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 3 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 917 821 743 691 667 433 141 33 33 66 117 123 173 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.1 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.1 22.1 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 54.1 55.5 56.8 58.1 59.4 61.8 64.4 67.0 69.4 71.7 73.7 75.4 77.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 12 11 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 31 42 48 32 43 65 77 46 22 65 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -9. -6. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -14. -11. -5. -1. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/23/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED From: http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/15082300AL0415_ships.txt ----------- On another topic, on my site I have a new radar feature from the NOAA hurricane hunters. In addition to radar data appearing along the track in Google Earth, I also have a new product for Google Earth that just shows the latest radar image the plane has released. It operates faster than the other radar feature on my site. When NOAA is releasing radar data the radar scan will appear in the file on this page: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?live_radar=1 |