their synopsis for P23L
Posted by cypresstx on 8/16/2015, 8:16 pm
currently

SYNOPSIS 2015081600

P23L
26N, 95W  (Use 85W for possible eastward motion)
700 hPa

Relatively large convective area oriented SW-NE covers the western Gulf of Mexico.


ECMWF:  ECMWF indicates a couple of potential circulations; I track the more southwestern one.  Only a weak OW max in the analysis, then depicted as a SW-NE stretched pouch during the 12-36 hour period (which is the period I used to determine phase speeds).  P23L remains weak as it tracks toward the north and quickly dissipates over western Louisiana.

GFS:  GFS is similar to previous forecasts, with much less organization  (NOTE: I initiated P23L today, but I have been examining the fields for the last couple of days.)  I assign a very uncertain position in the analysis, and that is all.

UKMET:

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF    1.1    3.7 track   48h
GFS      0.0    0.0 -    0h
UKMET  
NAVGEM  
HWGEN
120
In this thread:
GOM - BobbiStorm, 8/16/2015, 7:49 pm
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