Historical referencing...
Posted by Shalista on 5/6/2015, 11:58 pm
I fgured since we may have our first TS begin early this year I decided to bit a historical digging over a 20 yr period and have noticed a trend....

we all know that 2013, and 2014 were quite quiet for the Atlantic seaboard....I decided to look back at 1993 and 1994 hurricane seasons and noticed that those too were quiet.

In fact in 1993 there were only 8 named storms that year and none even reached the US.




In 1994 we had 7 named storms 2 of them even becoming hurricanes late in the season like in Nov.




Now moving forward into 1995....there were 19 names storms that year, 5 would become Major hurricanes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1995.png  

(map is too big to post in the forum)

My god look at how the map looked....could this be a pre-cursor of what this year might bring us?

Now moving forward again to 2013 to compare to 1993.

OK so in 2013, we had 13 officially named storms and 1 SSTS that developed in Dec, making that 14.  Still if you look at the picture as a whole, and the US was not affected by a hurricane but was affected by two TS, to me...an semi-uneventful year and the two hurricanes remained out at sea, with one almost making landfall in Mexico, but was downgraded to a TS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2013.png


Moving into 2014...8 named storms 4 hurricanes, ans 2 major's.  the closest hurricane to the US was Arthur.  The rest remained away from the US, but I feel for our sister islands who were battered by the brunt of the Major's.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2014.png

I'm seeing a trend here, I mean if I am wrong please feel free to chime in and correct me, I'm just pointing out historical evidence.  My opinion is that we may have a busy season coming up this year and I believe I even think back in 2013 said to look out for the names in 2015 which scare me the most...however I cannot find the thread where I posted the 2013-2015 names :(

The Fact that we had 2 majors last year has me a bit concerned on the probability of a ramped up and busy season.  I guess this post will be addressed at the end of the season.

So this years 2015 Hurricane Season names are:

Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda

My money is on Claudette Fred, Ida, and Kate being Hurricanes this year


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Historical referencing... - Shalista, 5/6/2015, 11:58 pm
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