Re: One month to go before the Atlantic hurricane season officially starts June 1st
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 5/1/2015, 9:21 pm
Jeff Masters blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2970
He has a nice link to the ECMWF model:
http://wxug.us/1og61
And in the right column you can click the settings icon next to Model Data and select a different run and also check the GFS, which both have the areas.
It's early on, with multiple model, and multiple run, support, so that makes it more likely.
Going with less likely at this point (understatement), up to 16 days out on the GFS:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/
When Jim releases his city predictions video on May 15th there would be something starting to brew south of Cuba and a couple days later nearly over him.
With the one further out, especially early in the season, the model's accuracy is much lower. although sometimes it is correct of course. I guess it is time to start looking at models again. In anticipation of something forming early, I was careful to add "officially" when it comes to when the season starts. Although I didn't even know about the models showing something until I saw it on the local news tonight.
Satellite imagery for later:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html |
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