Re: NHC Releases National Map of Storm Surge Risk
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 11/7/2014, 8:33 pm
It's definitely not perfect. Category two Ike had higher surge than what this map shows. (Although technically it says "greater than" the values it shows)
I don't know how a better product could be created though. For large storms, the best way might be to describe it as the wind category being what it is but that given the storm's size and/or some other reasoning, the surge will be what is usually expected with a storm that has a wind category higher than that. Like Ike, a category two storm that had a storm surge of perhaps a category four hurricane in some areas. Or with post-tropical Sandy having a higher surge.
A really prominent, clear disclaimer would be nice though. I just don't know how they could present the actual product more clearly without the wind categories. With a real storm, the NHC's storm surge products would be much more tailored to that storm. Then you could get a better idea of what the water level will be where you are. But when speaking of hypothetical storms to determine how much risk you might have, I think that will always be confusing. I think having any other scales, like the surge destruction potential with the Integrated Kinetic Energy scale which was very informative during Sandy for example, will always be too confusing for the general public. The wind scale is easy to understand. If it reaches a certain wind speed it is then that category. Any other scale for surge would seem to require complex methods on how the rating in the scale is derived. That is why I think expressing the expected surge in terms of it being higher than the average surge expected for a certain wind category of hurricane might be more understandable to the public. Not perfect, but maybe less confusing. I think it is easier for someone to understand that a large category two hurricane might have the surge more typically associated with a category four hurricane. Beyond that, people will have to pay attention to local officials for a specific storm for more specific information to their area.
My area no longer links the zones to specific wind speeds, although it used to. My area uses letters, A through E, which does kind of correspond to 1 to 5 on the wind scale, but it just doesn't say that anymore. They can't because while it might usually be the case, some storms can obviously cause higher surge. But as confusing as it may or may not be to some, I like the idea that it can kind of be expressed that if a large category two hurricane came and had a surge more typically associated with a category four hurricane, that levels A to D would probably be evacuated. I think that is understandable enough to the general public than perhaps any other way of presenting it.
My area has a map here that is nice. It's a huge 25mb PDF file to view the whole thing:
http://www.hillsboroughcounty.org/index.aspx?nid=662
Then click "Printable Evacuation Zone Map (PDF Map)". |
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