Re: 94L.INVEST
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 10/26/2014, 10:33 pm
Earlier today the convection increased and the NHC held the chances the same. Convection continued to increase, and the chance within 5 days went down. I think the near term chances should be much higher than 10%. And because it is near to land the 5 days chance should be the same as the 48 hour chances. It is very, very close to land, but I still think the chances should be higher. The Sunday 8pm best track info had it as a 1007mb low with 30 knot winds so I am kind of wondering why they don't have the chances higher since they could already call it if they wanted to. Maybe they are waiting to see if it persists long enough, but if they wait too long it might only last 6 to 12 hours if they do start advisories. Then again all they have to do since it is probably not too much of a threat (not sure about potential high isolated rainfall totals given the small size of the system and slow movement) is adjust the best track post season to reflect TD 9 having come back to life.
If we don't get a Hanna soon, we could end up waiting another six years for one. We are getting to the point where it may be possible we don't see a H storm this year. I think we still have time for another storm or two, but perhaps not. Every week that goes by makes the chances less. Christmas stuff is already in some stores (earliest I have ever seen, I have never seen it before Halloween before), so you know the season is on its way to winding down. |
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10/26/2014, 9:22 am Post A Reply
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