| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025637.shtml?5day?large#contents TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 92.9W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CELESTUN TO FRONTERA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CELESTUN TO FRONTERA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF CAMPECHE LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014 1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014 Satellite and radar data from Mexico indicate that deep convection associated with the small well-defined low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche has become organized in bands over the eastern and northern portions of the circulation during the past few hours. Thus the low is being designated as a tropical depression. Earlier aircraft data supported winds around 30 kt. The depression is over warm water and moderate southwesterly shear that has been over the system is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours. This should allow for some strengthening and the depression is expected to to become a overnight or early Wednesday. The cyclone should weaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night. If the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner. The depression is moving eastward at about 5 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours and the cyclone is forecast to reach the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late tomorrow or tomorrow night. After that time, the track forecast becomes much more uncertain since the small system is likely to interact with a developing non-tropical low pressure over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF shows the tropical cyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the depression a separate system. For now, the NHC forecast shows a weak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 19.4N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 19.4N 92.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 19.4N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 19.4N 90.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 19.4N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 19.0N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 18.5N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0000Z 18.5N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |