Gonzalo at 11am Sunday: "remains a hurricane over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic"
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/19/2014, 12:11 pm
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/143253.shtml?3-daynl?large#contents





HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

Despite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C,
Gonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845
UTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm
core that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the
southeastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds
during the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained
wind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since
this report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial
intensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional
models are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward
during the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion
over the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3
days. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA
Ocean Prediction Center.

Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and
gradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,
post-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over
the north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity
forecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 49.0N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart





HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014

...GONZALO REMAINS A HURRICANE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...49.0N 47.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 52 MPH...83 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 52 MPH...83 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST TONIGHT...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY AWAY FROM
NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...AND THEN RACE ACROSS THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 310
MILES...500 KM.  THE LARGEST EXTENT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE AND
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND
SOME OIL RIGS HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS THREAT...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST...BERMUDA...AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH
TODAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



181
In this thread:
Gonzalo at 11am Sunday: "remains a hurricane over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic" - Chris in Tampa, 10/19/2014, 12:11 pm
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.