National Hurricane Center: http://hurricanes.gov/ 3 day track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/083240.shtml?3day?large#contents It's coming to Bermuda, the only question is how bad will it be and we may not know the answer until it is either almost over, or just next to, Bermuda. It could come down to the core being over Bermuda, and causing devastating to catastrophic damage, or passing just a couple dozen miles away, with much less impact. Unfortunately the storm is larger and continues to become better defined: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/08L/08L_floater.html Currently, it is forecast to have 115 mph sustained winds with gusts to 140mph. Then in the public advisory it also says: "IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER." That could mean gusts in those areas being possibly 180 mph or greater. (And that assumes it weakens from its current intensity.) HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 ...GONZALO REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AGAIN... ...CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 68.7W ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA ON FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES... AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO TODAY. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR BERMUDA. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. NOAA BUOY 41046...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM... SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO...RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 51 MPH...83 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS ATOP AND ON THE WINDWARD SIDES OF HILLY TERRAIN ARE OFTEN UP TO 30 PERCENT STRONGER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND IN SOME ELEVATED LOCATIONS CAN BE EVEN GREATER. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN BERMUDA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014 The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has improved during the past few hours, with the eye warming and becoming more distinct since the last advisory. The 0600 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB was T6.0/115 kt and the 0715 UTC ADT was T6.2/120 kt. The initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory based on the improving satellite appearance. The next Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Gonzalo around 1200 UTC to provide more information on the storm's intensity. Given the recent satellite trends, it seems that Gonzalo has completed the earlier eyewall replacement cycle. Some additional fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours while Gonzalo remains over SSTs around 29C. Gradual weakening is forecast through 36 hours while SSTs slowly cool along the track and the shear begins to increase, and Gonzalo is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Bermuda on Friday. After 36 hours, faster weakening is shown as Gonzalo becomes post-tropical and then gradually decays as an extratropical cyclone late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above most of the guidance in the short term and then trends toward the LGEM model while Gonzalo remains a tropical cyclone. The initial motion estimate is 360/08, as Gonzalo is moving northward to the west of a subtropical ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on the track forecast scenario, with Gonzalo expected to recurve ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the east coast of North America. The guidance this cycle has trended a little to the right through 48 hours and the NHC track has been adjusted 20-30 miles in that direction. This forecast is now a little to the left of the multi-model consensus and brings the center of Gonzalo very close to Bermuda in about 36 hours. Late in the period, post-tropical Gonzalo is expected to pass south of Newfoundland and then accelerate northeastward and eastward across the north Atlantic. At days 3 through 5, the new NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 25.3N 68.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 26.8N 68.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 29.2N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 31.9N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 35.3N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 45.5N 53.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 20/0600Z 52.0N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0600Z 55.0N 10.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brennan |