Re: Tropical Storm 02C Ana
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/14/2014, 8:04 pm
Someone had asked about whether Gonzo (the NOAA G-IV jet that samples the high altitude around storms) would go into Gonzalo. Nope. Gonzo is headed for Ana.

The steering based on the models is more uncertain with Ana. The model spread is greater with Ana:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=cp&year=2014&storm=02&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

Than with Gonzalo:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=08&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

While Gonzalo is expected to be much more powerful, it is clear that it is very likely to come close to Bermuda. Regardless of what additional data Gonzo may have provided by flying around, that would not probably not change. (We probably will not know if this will be a catastrophic hit for Bermuda until it actually hits, or passes by, given the size of the powerful wind field and whether it is a direct hit or just far enough offshore to keep the highest winds over the water.) But as for Hawaii, it is more uncertain so they do need some additional data to know how great the threat is. (Although the consensus of the models is very close to, if not over, the Hawaiian Islands, so warnings and evacuations seem very likely.) And, despite some mention of shear for Ana, it doesn't look bad at all:

18Z:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/14101418CP0214_ships.txt
(0Z will be out in an hour or less and available at the link below at the bottom of the folder)
From: ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

Many things in the Pacific have been consistently underestimated this year. For those in Hawaii, it would definitely be a good idea to start getting as prepared as you can.

Floaters:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
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Tropical Storm Ana forms ESE of Hawaiian Islands; Forecast to become a hurricane - Chris in Tampa, 10/13/2014, 11:01 pm
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