Update
Posted by hanna on 10/14/2014, 11:22 am
000
WTNT33 KNHC 141453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014

...GONZALO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN....
...STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 65.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF HURRICANE
GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND
NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN NEAR LATITUDE 20.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
GONZALO WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY...
AND REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY...AND POSSIBLY
BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.  DURING THE PAST HOUR...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 55
MILES...90 KM NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GONZALO REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H AND A GUST TO 52 MPH...83 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THOSE ISLANDS.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
PUERTO RICO TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



You can see both storms on this image.

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Hurricane Gonzalo forecast to hit Bermuda as a strong hurricane - Chris in Tampa, 10/13/2014, 10:36 pm
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