| Track: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/085519.shtml?5day?large#contents Forecast to pass over, or near, Bermuda as a major hurricane on Friday. HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014 ...GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 64.4W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 974 MB...28.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014 Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Gonzalo has continued to quickly strengthen overnight while the eye has passed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands. The aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 116 kt in the northeastern eyewall and SFMR surface winds of 92 kt. A blend of these data yield an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. The SHIPS model and a UW-CIMSS shear analysis show about 15 to 20 kt of south- southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, which may be why the eye has not become apparent in infrared imagery. The shear is forecast to decrease and remain low during the next few days while the hurricane moves over warm water. This should allow for additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. Eyewall cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity after that time. In about 3 days, gradual weakening is predicted to begin as Gonzalo will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance, and is a little higher than the previous advisory through 72 hours due to the higher initial intensity. Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 315/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, Gonzalo should turn northward, then north-northeastward ahead a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move off the east coast of the United States in 2 to 3 days. Late in the period, the hurricane should accelerate northeastward in deep layer southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remains some spread in the forward speed of the hurricane after 72 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the GFEX and TVCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 19.6N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 21.0N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 22.7N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 24.1N 68.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 25.4N 68.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 28.9N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 43.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |