Re: NHC 2pm Atlantic Outlook on Tuesday
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 10/8/2014, 1:14 am
Earlier, around the start of the season, it was developing something erroneously for weeks, starting around 6 to 7 days out in the model. But this time it has shown something earlier than that, making it a bit more likely in my opinion than then.

For reliability around the end of the 16 days though, consulting a Ouija board would probably be right about as often. In the middle of the season it might tell you if things might be more or less likely to have something popup in the next few weeks, but as for precise development, or landfall location, nada. 16 days out it could be from South America to Europe. You need multiple model support then, but it is hard to get a hold of free versions of the models that go out anywhere near that far.

As for this particular area it has been developing in the Carib, I'm not sure what it is trying to do now. It seems to take it into the East Pacific and then later, getting to that end of the GFS long range now, something appears back in the western Carib. So it has been pushed back now at the moment.

I haven't been paying as much attention to the NE. A few times it tried to develop an actual second tropical storm, but I've been waiting to see if gets the first one right. (and it's potentially nearer to me, so I'm paying more attention to it.) I did see the one where it kind of merged two things (like a tropical storm / nor'easter combo), but that was one run and at the very end of the run.
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The GFS is still at it - Chris in Tampa, 10/5/2014, 9:46 pm
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