| The NHC talked about convection thinning out last night in the 11pm discussion. However, it is much better looking now at the center. Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html The water temperatures are very warm there. (mid to upper 80's) Contoured Field: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfcalf.c.gif Filled Contour: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfcalf.fc.gif The NHC talked about Odile shifting a little to the right, but now the center seems to be accessing the warm water. Depending on its trajectory over the Gulf of California, it may not weaken so soon. It could potentially strengthen in my opinion if it continues over water longer than forecast before finally turning inland into Mexico. I wouldn't be shocked to see some watches and warnings extended northward along the eastern shore of the Gulf of California. TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT The tropical cyclone continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on satellite imagery, but deep convection has been thinning out. Applying a typical inland decay rate, the current intensity is set at a rather uncertain 55 kt. Continued weakening is forecast, and the system is likely to fall below tropical storm strength in a day or so. The official wind speed forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance and to the intensity model consensus, and now shows Odile becoming a remnant low by 72 hours. Odile's heading has shifted a little to the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the east of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the north in a day or so, and a low- to mid-level trough near southern California is likely to turn Odile or its remnant low north-northeastward in 2-3 days. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus forecast, TVCE. Moisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation over the next few days. This, along with the slow motion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 26.6N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |