that kinda snuck up on me...
Posted by cypresstx on 9/11/2014, 9:55 pm
while I was busy w elsewhere...

this is from a local Harris Co Flood Control District Met, as posted on our local KHOU weather forum:


Area of low pressure east of the central FL coast has been declared 92L.

Discussion:

A surface low pressure center located just north of the Bahamas and east of the east FL coast has shown little additional organization today after an explosion of thunderstorms near its center overnight and this morning. Surface pressures remain high in the area, and while both radar data from Melbourne, FL and satellite images show a well defined low level circulation, convection is not organized enough to declare the system a tropical depression. The system is drifting toward the WSW and will make landfall on the E or SE FL coast Friday into Saturday.

Track:

A chaotic and uncertain forecast track path exist as 92L moves WSW and then W across FL and into the SE Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. This track is in response to a building ridge of high pressure over the SE US as a result of the deep troughing over the central US which traps and moves the system westward. After 72 hours there is large model spread and very little agreement on the potential upper level steering pattern over the Gulf of Mexico and the southern US with wildly varying tracks being presented by each of the global and hurricane forecasting models. With this in mind coordinated NHC/HPC grids will bring a surface low into the SE and central Gulf by early next week and that is the extent of confidence at this time.

Intensity:

92L will struggle over the next 24-36 hours as strong northerly shear impacts the system and then the FL landmass. Once in the Gulf of Mexico upper level conditions appear to become more favorable for development and NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of development once in the Gulf late this weekend or early next week. Global forecast models are not overly aggressive with this system with the majority of guidance keeping the system either a tropical storm or below tropical storm status. The ECMWF keeps it an open wave as it has done so many times this summer and has usually been correct. Most of the other global models show modest development over the Gulf of Mexico.

Note:

For the first time this season a tropical system in the Atlantic is presenting a highly uncertain track and intensity forecast. Significant changes are likely with this system over the next 72 hours which could affect forecasts along the Gulf coast including TX next week.

Note: while there appears to be some decent model agreement on the track below, the uncertainty is larger than normal.
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Disturbance East of Florida becoming a little more interesting - Jake, 9/10/2014, 11:43 am
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