Re: whats going on off of cental american coast
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/5/2014, 8:50 am
On the NHC front page, see "Tropical Weather Discussion". Updated Daily at 2:05AM, 8:05AM, 2:05PM and 8:05PM EDT.

See surface analysis too on that page:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/USA_latest.gif

The tropical wave is apparently well east. (although that was a 2am EDT, 6Z, surface analysis as of posting this.)

See bold sections below.



"TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...        

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N22W TO THE
LOW NEAR 14N23W TO 07N23W...MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
MAINLY N OF THE LOW FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 18W-26W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 23W-27W...COINCIDING
WITH A REGION OF DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 17N47W TO 09N47W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH SOME SAHARAN DRY AIR
AFFECTING ITS NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT. STRONG DEEP LAYER
ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR PREVAILS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS
WAVE HINDERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG
49W...BETWEEN 10N-16N.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS OVER E
PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM 21N66W TO 12N67W...MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS WAVE...WHICH
ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE COASTAL WATERS S OF
PUERTO RICO FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 65W-69W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 21N75W TO 12N76W...MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING NEAR THIS WAVE MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHERN CUBA. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE
REGION IS INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEARBY THE
WAVE AXIS. A FEW CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
REMAIN W OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG 19N...74W-82W.


A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ENTERING
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N91W TO 12N91W.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 15N
AND EXTENDING TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUATEMALA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR 14N23W TO
07N35W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N35W TO 12N58W. BESIDES THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG 06N...BETWEEN 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO MAINLY W
OF 97W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE WESTERN GULF
WATERS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH CENTER ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N83W COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N80W ARE SUPPORTING THE DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THUS PROVIDING E-SE WIND FLOW
OF 5-10 KT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR PREVAILS NEAR THIS
WAVE THEREFORE NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO IT. FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT THE WAVE TO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO. NO MAJOR
CHANGES ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ACROSS THE REGION...ONE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND ANOTHER MOVING
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA.
THE FIRST IS PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO THE AREA TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG
17N...BETWEEN 66W-69W. THE LATTER CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CUBA ALONG
20N...BETWEEN 76W-83W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS.
A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS BEING GENERATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BY AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WITH
CENTER NEAR 11N75W AND AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR
21N83W. THIS DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SUPPORTING THE
GENERATION OF NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
S OF 16N WEST OF 79W. TRADES OF 15 KT ABOUNDS ACROSS THE
BASIN...EXCEPT ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO
20-25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SW
BASIN...EXTENDING TO THE NW THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. A NEW
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                        

FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AFTER A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TO
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH AXIS
EXTEND TO THE SW N ATLC. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WEST OF 75W. THERE IS AN UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N80W. THIS FEATURE COUPLED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N83W IS KEEPING A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SUPPORTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N69W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
LOW IS NEAR 28N41W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG
28N...BETWEEN 35W-56W. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR AREAS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA"



More NHC marine stuff:
NHC Marine Forecasts & Analyses:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

Shear:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=



Out of the three to four storms the GFS tries to develop in the past few runs in the long range, the only one nearby is the one that seems to develop from around that area. But that is long range.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/
203
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whats going on off of cental american coast - stevemc12, 9/5/2014, 8:15 am
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