| Forecast to move into Mexico: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/203647.shtml?5day#contents Satellite: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/05L_floater.html TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a well-defined center of circulation. The system has a curved band of deep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions of the circulation. Thus the system is being designated as a tropical depression at this time. The maximum winds reported by the aircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt. Although the cyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the atmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening. Dynamical models indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly vertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36 hours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall. After landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous terrain of Mexico. The official wind speed forecast is a little above the intensity model consensus. The initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11. The steering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward. The flow to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36 hours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 20.1N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 21.1N 94.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 21.9N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 22.4N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 93.6W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA PESCA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO LA PESCA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H ...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH |