Model shift...
Posted by
beachman80 on 8/23/2014, 9:59 am
Definitely a change overnight with the two big globals, the GFS and GFDL, now turning this into Florida. Seems to be the trend, and we know with trends they can sometimes keep trending.
My concern is this thing does a Katrina and stays weak for awhile, fighting shear, which might tend to keep this on more of a southerly track and give it a better chance at getting into the GOM down the road. Too early to say but the models do seem to be hinting now that this thing will not turn.
Another concern is this thing has a huge mass to it. If it is able to find favorable conditions down the road it could ramp up fast. The key is can it find those conditions. I don't think anytime soon. |
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In this thread:
Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) -
Jake,
8/21/2014, 6:55 pm- Model shift... - beachman80, 8/23/2014, 9:59 am
- Morning Visible - Chris in Tampa, 8/23/2014, 9:47 am
- Re: Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) - stevemc12, 8/23/2014, 9:45 am
- 80% chance in 48 hrs; 90% chance in 5 days as of 8pm Friday - Chris in Tampa, 8/22/2014, 8:19 pm
- Re: Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) - stevemc12, 8/22/2014, 7:27 pm
- Re: Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) - stevemc12, 8/22/2014, 7:21 pm
- Re: Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) - stevemc12, 8/22/2014, 3:25 pm
- Re: Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Lowest Pressure PR) - Jake, 8/22/2014, 1:17 pm
- Re: Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) - hanna, 8/21/2014, 10:51 pm
- Re: Disturbance 96L Analysis Update!!! - Jake, 8/21/2014, 9:26 pm
- Up to 60% chance in 48 hours, 80% within 5 days as of 8pm on Thursday - Chris in Tampa, 8/21/2014, 7:50 pm
- Re: Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) - stevemc12, 8/21/2014, 7:05 pm
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