Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna)
Posted by Jake on 8/21/2014, 6:55 pm
The disturbance has continued to suffer the effects of dry air and easterly shear in the mid levels or 500mb Throughout the last few days. In addition, the large elongated circulation has had several moderate vortices causing large split convective areas. This has kept the system quite disorganized as convective competition disrupts any true center from closing.

Latest visible imagery, shows a more circular cloud pattern across the northern leeward islands late this evening. In addition, some banding features are beginning to form across the northern and eastern portion of the convective increase. Furthermore, low level cumulus streak flow appears to be pulling south across Puerto Rico and attempting to pull eastward across the central areas of the Islands Finally, St. Kitts was reporting NNE winds sustained 15kts gusting to 18kts and 28.84 pressure, think we have a new center forming well west of the originally tracked position which has lost all convection today.

The convective increase across the Northern Leewards is part of an increasing 850-700mb vortex and falling pressures, as large scale ascent, improving upper pattern, less shear and increased outflow, we may very well have a tropical depression tomorrow afternoon. In addition, deep layer moisture is slowly bleeding the dry air out through increased thermodynamics and the all might diurnal pulse.

As I stated earlier, the semi-permanent mid latitude trough as a pronounced weakness in the ridge across the Bahamas, however the subtropical ridge will steer the system WNW over the next several days. It's too early to say that the storm will head out to sea or continue on a more westerly course. However, the trend may be more west, Eastern Florida, GA and Carolinas need to monitor.
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Disturbance 96L Analysis ( Sorry no offense Hanna) - Jake, 8/21/2014, 6:55 pm
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