best FB post ever by NHC
Posted by
cypresstx on 8/20/2014, 7:22 pm
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC
from about 7 hrs ago
"Now that we have entered the heart of the hurricane season, there is an increase in the Internet hype around disturbances that NHC is monitoring. Given the long lead times involved, the wide range of possible outcomes, and the historically poor and erratic performance of guidance models with weak disturbances, there is no reliable science to forecast potential impacts to specific locations that would be more than a week away.
Nearly every disturbance poses some potential to become a dangerous hurricane. Folks in hurricane-prone areas should always be keeping an eye on the tropics and be prepared to respond when a true threat develops, but also remember the limitations in the science. NHC's forecasts of tropical cyclone formation and track extend out only to 5 days - because the science hasn't advanced enough to reliably forecast beyond that time frame. (We're working on internal forecasts out to 7 days, but we're a ways away from feeling comfortable making them public because the errors can be quite large.)
The bottom line really is: be alert, be prepared, but also be wary of long-range projections that go beyond what the science can offer. And make the NOAA National Hurricane Center www.hurricanes.gov your calm, clear, and trusted source for official forecast and warning information on tropical cyclones."
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