Re: Disturbance south of Cape Verde
Posted by Jake on 8/19/2014, 12:03 pm
Thought this system had potential several days ago (System 1), but a combination of marginal SST's, dry air (SAL) and marginal upper levels have kept this very weak.

Morning visible imagery, shows some consolidation of showers and scattered t- storms. Upper air pattern is marginally conducive for very slow development, but guidance indicates not only a progressively warmer ocean, but a more conducive upper pattern with an anticyclone building over the system as it nears the Lessor Antilles. Most the models development this from a Tropical storm to hurricane in the next several days. With a possible track across the Caribbean or into the Bahamas by next week.

Although all are possibilities, a persistent mid latitude trough has been nearly semi-permanent near the east coast feel that this will become a strong system, it will track into the weakness across the east gulf across Florida and Bahamas. Should this enter the Caribbean, a turn towards the North will occur once south of Cuba.  
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Disturbance south of Cape Verde - Jake, 8/13/2014, 6:05 pm
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