Re: 5 pm - still at 75mph
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/7/2014, 11:16 pm
That is actually lowered 5 mph from the intermediate advisory.
5pm EDT (11am HST): 75mph
8pm EDT (2pm HST): 80mph
11pm EDT (5pm HST): 75mph
I am surprised. They give the reasoning in the discussion, but I disagree about then saying it has an "INCREASINGLY RAGGED APPEARANCE". I think it has actually improved somewhat from 0Z. Next recon mission is scheduled to takeoff at 12:15am EDT, going into the center, if not on land, by 1:30am EDT. It would be nice if they could leave early.
Satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09E/09E_floater.html
11pm EDT (5PM HST advisory):
WTPA43 PHFO 080231
TCDCP3
HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 PM HST THU AUG 07 2014
ISELLE IS BARELY HOLDING ON TO HURRICANE STATUS. ALTHOUGH THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY RISE...THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 72
KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 2300 UTC. THE HIGHEST SFMR
WINDS WERE 68 KNOTS...AND VARIOUS WIND REDUCTION TECHNIQUES RESULTED
IN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES BETWEEN 65 AND 70 KNOTS.
THE 00Z SYNOPTIC INTENSITY WAS THUS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN
THE INCREASINGLY RAGGED APPEARANCE IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE 65 KNOTS FOR THIS CYCLE.
EVEN THOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES ISELLE OVER INCREASINGLY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENTERING A HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT IN REGARDS TO SHEAR. ISELLE IS CONTINUING TO IMPINGE ON
STRONGER NORTHERLIES AT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH
INTERACTION OF THE CORE WITH THE BIG ISLAND TERRAIN...WILL RESULT IN
MORE RAPID WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SHEAR WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS...
AND IS ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AS HAS BEEN STATED
BEFORE...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER ISELLE MAKES IT TO THE BIG ISLAND AS
A MINIMAL HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM WIND...RAIN...AND SURF.
THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AFTER 12
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTATION OF A SHALLOWER CYCLONE. ISELLE
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A RATHER WEAK SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ROUGHLY ALONG LATITUDE 39N. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SINK
SOUTH...BUT WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION
WITH ISELLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME ACCELERATION OF ISELLE...OR
ITS REMNANT LOW...IS FORECAST AT THE LONGER TIME PERIODS AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/0300Z 19.1N 153.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 19.4N 156.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.8N 158.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 20.3N 161.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 20.6N 163.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 21.6N 167.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 23.5N 173.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z 26.4N 179.8E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
R BALLARD |
94
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