Tropical storm warning for Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 8/1/2014, 5:07 am
Calling for isolated amounts of up to 6 inches now.





TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

...BERTHA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR MARTINIQUE LATER
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* DOMINICA
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST.
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...31
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PASS
NEAR OR NORTH OF BARBADOS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014
500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014

Bertha is a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located on the
western edge of the deep convection as indicated by satellite. The
low-level circulation continues to be vigorous, but given the
current westerly shear the outflow is very limited. There are no
reasons to change the initial intensity which is kept at 40 knots.
Another Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate Bertha in
the next several hours.

The current shear environment is not particularly favorable for
strengthening, but there are some indications by the global models
that the shear could decrease some as Bertha moves across the
northeastern Caribbean Sea. This should allow some slight
intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Once Bertha's
circulation moves away from Hispaniola beyond 48 hours, there is an
opportunity for additional strengthening if the shear becomes
lighter as suggested by global and statistical models. At this time,
the NHC forecast keeps Bertha with 45-knot winds over the
western Atlantic until it becomes more certain that the shear could
subside.

Bertha continues racing toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees
at 17 knots. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around the
Atlantic subtropical ridge which is forecast to persist. Once in
the western Atlantic near the eastern Bahamas, Bertha will be
steered by the southerly flow between the subtropical high
and a mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This pattern
will force Bertha to turn northward with a decrease in forward speed
and to eventually recurve northeastward over the Atlantic. The
confidence in the track forecast, primarily in the next 2 to 3
days, is high since most the guidance is tightly clustered. The
confidence decreases after 3 days when the guidance becomes
divergent. The track envelope, however, brings Bertha northward
and then northeastward over the Atlantic, and the NHC forecast
follows closely the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0900Z 13.0N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  01/1800Z 14.0N  59.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  02/0600Z 15.5N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  02/1800Z 17.2N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  03/0600Z 19.5N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  04/0600Z 24.5N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  05/0600Z 29.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 35.0N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Bertha forms from Invest 93L; Watches and warnings issued - Chris in Tampa, 7/31/2014, 10:59 pm
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