Re: An irresponsible forecast from a meteorologist in South Florida
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/28/2014, 11:34 pm
I like to use the BAM models to determine what would happen if weaker (shallower) or stronger (deeper).

http://www.hurricanecity.com/models/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2014&storm=93&latestinvest=1&display=googlemap&latestrun=1&models=BAMS,BAMM,BAMD

BAMS - Shallow
BAMM - Medium
BAMD - Deep

So, the shallower it is, the more west it may get. It's definitely not perfect, the BAM models are very basic I believe, but I like to see how far apart they are. If they are all together, it doesn't really matter if it is shallower or deeper. Very far apart, it seems to matter a lot as to where it might go.

The GFS ensemble members can probably tell you the same thing, but I don't know what is what. The ones that go further west might be for if the system were shallower, but I don't know. I only use the GFS ensemble therefore when it comes to determining the confidence. If they are all over the place, less confidence. If they are very close together, higher confidence. The way I understand those is that various things are tweaked for various ensemble members. If tweaking various conditions results in the storm ending up basically in the same place for the forecast ensemble members, then even if some things about the storm or along the path are not forecast correctly, then maybe it will still not deviate much at all. If the ensemble members are all over the place, then small changes along the track regarding what is forecast could have a much greater change in the path ultimately.

For this storm the ensemble members still have quite a spread even out 5 days, from over the central Lesser Antilles to passing north of the Lesser Antilles. Beyond that they are really spread, from pointing in the direction of Bermuda to even over Cuba. Now that's some uncertainty.
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2am on July 28th: Invest 93L - 70% chance through 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 7/28/2014, 3:14 am
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