8pm on July 28th: 50% in 48 hrs now; Still 70% through 5 days
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 7/28/2014, 7:43 pm
"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of
disturbed weather located about 850 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands has become a little better organized during the past
few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the
next several days while the system moves generally westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

If it continues at the rate it is, despite its size, some of the eastern Carib could see a potent system by the time it approaches that area. In the last few hours it has really started to spin with convection at the center. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a depression, or even named storm, by tomorrow morning.

Satellite:

http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satellite/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+NHE&type=Animation&numframes=6&width=600&height=400&info=ir&zoom=1&palette=ir2.pal&quality=55&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=11&lon=-35
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2am on July 28th: Invest 93L - 70% chance through 5 days - Chris in Tampa, 7/28/2014, 3:14 am
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