Re: 08W.NEOGURI expected to be a Super Typhoon
Posted by hanna on 7/5/2014, 3:43 pm
Interesting when I saw then depression now 08W.NEOGURI I got this creepy feeling the exact felling I had for the depression that became Super Typhoon Haiyan.  I hope I am wrong, interestingly enough Dave Ornauer seems to have a bad feeling also.



A handful of times in the past few days, PST has invoked the name of Typhoon Bart, the last truly big super typhoon to do extensive damage to Okinawa. Typhoon Neoguri is on target to become the next Bart, posing a significant threat as possibly the most powerful tropical cyclone to hit the island since Bart in September 1999.

Typhoon 08W (Neoguri), # 9

[Typhoon Neoguri is seen in a false-color satellite image taken just before midnight July 4, 2014. NOAA]

By Dave Ornauer Published: July 5, 2014

   
7:45 p.m. Saturday, July 5, Japan time: For Okinawa, Tuesday's weather picture is, indeed, a grim one. Typhoon Neoguri continues bearing down on the island, and if it stays on current forecast track, will pound U.S. bases as a super typhoon come Tuesday afternoon.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Neoguri intensifying into a super typhoon at mid-morning Sunday, about a day before it begins a wide and gradual bend north toward Okinawa, packing sustained 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts at its center. That's equal to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. If those wind speeds hold, this would be the strongest typhoon to hit Okinawa since Bart in late September 1999.

Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight's extended forecast projects 58-mph sustained winds starting around 8 a.m. and lasting until 10 p.m. Tuesday. Peak winds are forecast to be the aforementioned 167-mph sustained and 201-mph gusts at 3 p.m. Nine to 11 inches of rain is also expected.

Here's the wind forecast timeline from the Kadena weather flight:

   40-mph sustained winds, from 2 a.m. Tuesday.
   58-mph sustained winds, from 8 a.m. Tuesday.
   Maximum 167-mph sustained winds and 201-mph gusts, 3 p.m. Tuesday.
   Winds diminishing below 58 mph, from 10 p.m. Tuesday.
   Winds diminishing below 40 mph, from 5 a.m. Wednesday.

If there's any sort of silver lining to this, Neoguri is a fast-moving storm, so it should be in and out of the Okinawa area relatively quickly, in about a day's time.

But Sasebo Naval Base on Kyushu and Marine Corps Station Iwakuni in southwestern Honshu are far from out of the woods.

JTWC projects Neoguri to make landfall around 6 p.m. Wednesday, still packing a significant wallop, 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts as it crashes ashore, 35 miles southeast of Sasebo around 11 p.m. Wednesday.

Iwakuni is next, and though it's shielded well by mountains, it will likely take a direct hit around 9 a.m. Thursday, with Neoguri still packing 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts, assuming it doesn't begin shearing apart due to land interaction.

Especially with winds that ferocious in the forecast, the time to prepare has already come. Now that the July 4th celebration has ended, haul in the lawn chairs and tables, dismantle the trampoline, bring the bicycles inside and store the Hibachi somewhere safe. The commissaries have been quite active; there's been some talk of extended hours in the run-up to the storm, so take advantage. Enough water, non-perishable food, diapers, pet food, flashlight, portable radio and batteries to last three days. Visit the gasoline stand and fill up the tank and get enough cash out of the ATM to last you three days, and do this no later than Monday. Dust off the board games to give the kiddles something to do during lockdown.

Communication is also key. Again, listen only to official channels. Avoid the rumors. Avoid the "Well, I heard " crowd. Follow your command's access channels and Facebook pages. And when the inevitable TCCOR 1-E lockdown occurs, avoid any and all temptation to venture outside in the storm. Off base or on. Just because the Japanese are out and about making their appointed rounds, keep in mind, they're used to it. They've lived with it all their lives. Americans, particularly newcomers, have not.

Sasebo and Iwakuni remain all clear, while Okinawa remains in seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect that to change sometime early Sunday morning.

From the JMA.


For the  animation watch how it blows up.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/largec.html?area=6&element=0&time=201407051900

From the JTWC an earlier shot, what beautiful storm.

407
In this thread:
08W.NEOGURI expected to be a Super Typhoon - hanna, 7/5/2014, 7:48 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.