Re: Critical Point for Maria ? ? ?

Posted by TuffyE on 9/12/2011, 11:10 am

It looks like the 11:00 am discussion is all over it.  They see enough shear to prevent redevelopment, but do imply doubts about the effects of the troughs on the weakened system...thus a slow westward motion for now.  Again, this looks like a major change that we haven't been noting and disussing here. BTW...The 11:00 position is SOUTH-WEST of the 5:00 fix.  It's effectively a different system with no model runs yet initialized.  It's also just the type that the models struggle over; weak and near other features, including it's own former convection.  It sure looks interesting to me.  It's the second time this season that systems have had a chance to split and this one sure looks like it is going to do that in some ways.

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