Re: PDS for Mid TN and North AL
Posted by JAC on 10/26/2010, 10:47 am



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0854 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN THROUGH NRN AL
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 261354Z - 261500Z
 
  SCATTERED BANDS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MIDDLE TN SWWD THROUGH
  NRN MS IS BEING MONITORED FOR DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THREAT
  IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME...BUT IF TRENDS BEGIN TO
  SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY DEEPEN OR INTENSIFY A WW WILL NEED TO BE
  ISSUED FOR MIDDLE TN AND NRN AL. OTHERWISE...WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY
  BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING AS LINE OF CONVECTION FARTHER WEST
  APPROACHES THIS REGION.
 
  THIS MORNING A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUES FROM MIDDLE TN
  SWWD THROUGH NRN MS AND IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL
  ASCENT. THE CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW WITH NO LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
  INDICATED...AND MORNING RAOB DATA FROM BIRMINGHAM AND NASHVILLE
  INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION BASED AROUND 750 MB. VISIBLE IMAGERY
  SHOWS A FEW BREAKS WITHIN A MULTILAYER CLOUD DECK WHICH WILL SUPPORT
  AT LEAST MODEST WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DIABATIC WARMING IN
  ADDITION TO EWD ADVANCING ZONE OF ASCENT MIGHT EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
  DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THIS BAND...AND AT LEAST ONE CONVECTIVE
  RESOLVING MODEL SUPPORTS PRE-FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION. IF CONVECTION
  INDEED DOES DEEPEN/INTENSIFY...LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG EFFECTIVE
  SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...LINE OF
  STORMS FARTHER WEST IS MOVING EWD AT AROUND 25 KT AND WILL APPROACH
  THE ERN EDGE OF THE WATCH AROUND 16Z.
 
  ..DIAL.. 10/26/2010
 
 
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PDS for Mid TN and North AL - JAC, 10/26/2010, 10:45 am
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