Good chance Richard should make Belize as Cat 1
Posted by JAC on 10/23/2010, 6:38 pm
Solid warm-core at 1C

Fired a strong hot-tower earlier today for a couple hours.

Anti-cyclone is straight ahead which allows the PV column to expand vertically and hence spin faster as it gets closer to Belize.

37GHz shows strong updraft north of the LLC allowing Richard to suck energy out of the very warm ocean via WISHE.

Cirrus looks good now which should allow solar heating to force PV down to the surface tomorrow.

Banding very evident.

WV shows good mid-level moisture and unstable air all around now, thus reducing strong downdrafts.

CloudSAT shows cloud tops high at 15KM the top of the troposphere.

Since air is now unstable over the landmass, afternoon heating could provide a quick shot into Richard.

I won't rule out a possible RI along the way most likely Sunday afternoon.

Maybe a 20 or 30% chance.




























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Good chance Richard should make Belize as Cat 1 - JAC, 10/23/2010, 6:38 pm
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