Borderline Cat 4 / 5 (135 knot winds)
Posted by JAC on 10/22/2010, 12:11 pm
WTIO31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (GIRI) WARNING NR 007    
  01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   ---
  WARNING POSITION:
  221200Z --- NEAR 19.8N 93.4E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
  PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                           085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                           095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                           085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 93.4E
   ---
  FORECASTS:
  12 HRS, VALID AT:
  230000Z --- 21.1N 94.4E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
  VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 10 KTS
   ---
  24 HRS, VALID AT:
  231200Z --- 22.7N 95.8E
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
  WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   ---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 93.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 9 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221119Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED
20 NM EYE WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE EYE-WALL. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
TC GIRI HAS INTENSIFIED BY OVER 50 KNOTS, INDICATIVE OF EXPLOSIVE
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
VICINITY OF HUNTERS BAY AND COMBERMERE BAY WITHIN TWO HOURS, AND
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF MAYANMAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 230300Z.//
NNNN



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Giri in BOB: Major landfall forecast for Myanmar - JAC, 10/22/2010, 7:53 am
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