| WTPN31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 17.2N 121.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 121.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 17.0N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.9N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.0N 116.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.3N 115.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 18.1N 114.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 19.5N 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.4N 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 121.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (MEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MEGI HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE (AVERAGE ELEVATION 5,900 FEET) OF ISABELLA PROVINCE, LUZON. THE SYSTEM CAME ASHORE AROUND 0330Z NEAR DIVILACAN BAY AND HAS TRACKED SOUTH OF WEST WHILE WEAKENING. THE EYE HAS FILLED, BUT TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHEDS FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE PHILIPPINES. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD ARE LIKELY UNREPRESENATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF LAND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IT WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A VERY STRONG SYSTEM AND WILL STEADILY RE- INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AROUND DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST THE STEERING RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND PROMOTE A MORE NORTH OF WEST TRACK. AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD MODERATE INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST LIES ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH TO DATE HAS PERFORMED THE BEST OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. GFS AND WBAR REMAIN NORTHERN OUTLIERS, RESOLVING UNREALISTIC TRACKS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// NNNN |