A small fly in the ointment.
Posted by JAC on 10/11/2010, 11:04 am
UL looks good.

Poleward outflow channel in place.  Convection is venting nicely on its west-side as a result.

During the night a high rain-rate cell fired for about 1-1/2 hrs.

Even after DMAX this morning, overshooting tops persist.

Anti-cyclone is directly over the convection indicating latent heating is effective in pushing away shear and raising the tropopause.

A couple things are holding this back:

1)  Core is very very wide and 850mb is elongated.
2)  Very close to land.  Air is currently stable over Honduras and Nicaragua.
3)  Closest buoy pressure hasn't really fallen yet.

I think this afternoon as air destabilizes over Honduras and Nicaragua we could see better organization.

At that point, boundary-layer air could ascend on the west portion of the convection.

The anti-cyclone will help to bring down surface pressures.

I am a little suprised CMC and GFS are not more aggressive with this in the near term,


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TD forming / Paula soon to follow?? - Jake, 10/11/2010, 10:02 am
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