A small fly in the ointment.
Posted by
JAC on 10/11/2010, 11:04 am
UL looks good.
Poleward outflow channel in place. Convection is venting nicely on its west-side as a result.
During the night a high rain-rate cell fired for about 1-1/2 hrs.
Even after DMAX this morning, overshooting tops persist.
Anti-cyclone is directly over the convection indicating latent heating is effective in pushing away shear and raising the tropopause.
A couple things are holding this back:
1) Core is very very wide and 850mb is elongated. 2) Very close to land. Air is currently stable over Honduras and Nicaragua. 3) Closest buoy pressure hasn't really fallen yet.
I think this afternoon as air destabilizes over Honduras and Nicaragua we could see better organization.
At that point, boundary-layer air could ascend on the west portion of the convection.
The anti-cyclone will help to bring down surface pressures.
I am a little suprised CMC and GFS are not more aggressive with this in the near term,
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In this thread:
TD forming / Paula soon to follow?? -
Jake,
10/11/2010, 10:02 am- Latest VORTEX: 77-knot winds outbound. - JAC, 10/11/2010, 4:08 pm
- Re: TD forming / Paula soon to follow?? - BobbiStorm, 10/11/2010, 3:29 pm
- Paula on FTP - JAC, 10/11/2010, 2:28 pm
- Re: TD forming / Paula soon to follow?? - Stormexpert2010, 10/11/2010, 11:35 am
- Impact Weather - CypressTX, 10/11/2010, 11:34 am
- RECON in the air - JAC, 10/11/2010, 11:08 am
- A small fly in the ointment. - JAC, 10/11/2010, 11:04 am
- Re: TD forming / Paula soon to follow?? - ArgosyTn, 10/11/2010, 10:51 am
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