CaneTalk: 90L Looking better for Development

90L Looking better for Development

Posted by JAC on 5/23/2010, 9:27 am

1008mb
25 knot winds
Over ~26C Water
Stationary

Convection is trying to cover the LLC - currently about 150 north.
Looks like gravity waves on a small cirrus top at 45K-ft.
Seeing some overshooting cumulus nimbus.
Actually not too bad at this latitude.

Shear has dropped and it looks like a poleward outflow channel could be forming.
Shear tendency map may be hinting at an anti-cyclone forming.

Theta-e infeed looks good.

1C core, but not a really good LL inversion.

MSLP on the East Bahama Buoy is dropping.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010

AS OF 23/0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1007 MB LOW AT 25N70W TO HISPANIOLA AT 20N71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 66W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE IN A FEW HOURS AT
1200 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ESPECIALLY TIGHT N OF THE LOW
CENTER AND CONVECTION IS NOT IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE CENTER THUS
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DRIFT N FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
THEN DRIFT NW. IN ADDITION...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PRESENTLY CENTERED NEARBY AT 26N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER CENTER TO 55W.