CaneTalk: 92B in the Bay of Bengal

92B in the Bay of Bengal

Posted by JAC on 5/17/2010, 3:32 pm

Great looking anticyclone and boundary-layer theta-e convergence.

Poleward and equatorward outflow channels in place.

Like usual in the BOB, core is wide and warm.

WTIO21 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 89.6E TO 14.0N 84.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7N 88.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
87.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 88.6E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AROUND A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). AN EARLIER 170315Z ASCAT PASS
CONFIRMS THAT A WELL-DEFINED 20 TO 25 KNOT CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
A 171108Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES MARKED CONSOLIDATION HAS
OCCURRED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION RINGING AN
EASILY IDENTIFIABLE LLCC. SEVERAL BANDS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO WRAP
TOWARDS THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM LIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
MULTIDIRECTIONAL VENTING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS, AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181500Z.//
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