CaneTalk: Next possible severe event 4/29 to 4/30 Southern Plains

Next possible severe event 4/29 to 4/30 Southern Plains

Posted by JAC on 4/26/2010, 12:42 pm

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260728
SPC AC 260728

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT MON APR 26 2010

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF -- EVEN AS
EARLY AS DAY 4 /THU. APR. 29/ -- IN TERMS OF EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF
THE WRN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS A RESULT OF THESE
DIFFERENCES ALOFT...THE FASTER GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS BY THE END OF DAY 4 /12Z FRI. APR. 30/...WITH THE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM ERN MO SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR...WRN LA...AND THEN
SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST. MEANWHILE...THE SLOWER ECMWF DEPICTS THIS
FRONT CROSSING WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS WRN OK AND INTO THE TX BIG BEND REGION
BY THE END OF DAY 4.

WHILE THESE DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY OUTLOOK AREAS
BEYOND DAY 4...ATTM WILL RE-INTRODUCE AN AREA FOR DAY 4...CENTERED
ON SERN KS/OK/N TX. WHILE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
SUBSTANTIAL...AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT A RETURN OF DECENT GULF MOISTURE
NWD ACROSS OK WILL OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AMPLE
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK/WRN N
TX DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE TIED MORE TO THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT ACCORDING TO THE GFS ...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT A DRYLINE
SHOULD MIX EWD TO A SIMILAR LOCATION -- PROVIDING SOME CONFIDENCE IN
THE LOCATION OF THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GIVEN
THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF
ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 04/26/2010

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Next possible severe event 4/29 to 4/30 Southern Plains - JAC, 4/26/2010, 12:42 pm