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Appreciable severe potential ARKLATEX Wednesday

Posted by JAC on 3/8/2010, 2:10 pm







DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0235 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010
 
  VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/ARKLATEX TO
  LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
 
  ...EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
  IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO
  ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OZARKS
  VICINITY...IT APPEARS AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK TO THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS
  RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING
  IN PLACE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF
  TODAYS/TUESDAYS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST...INCREASING LARGE
  SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD
  SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID/LATE
  AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY INITIALLY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY.
  SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND STRONG/VEERING FLOW
  THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL MODE OF
  SUPERCELLS WITH SEVERE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE
  OF LARGE SCALE FORCING/HEIGHT FALLS...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT STORMS
  SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM BY EARLY
  EVENING...WITH A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK QUICKLY
  SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.
  ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SEVERE TSTMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
  SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY...PERHAPS MAINLY
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
 
  ...EASTERN OK/FAR SOUTHEAST KS TO OZARKS/LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
  OTHER LOWER TOPPED SEVERE STORMS WILL POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHERN AR/SOUTHERN MO IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
  TO THE NORTHEAST ADVANCING UPPER SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
  /50S F/ WILL BE MORE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT IT APPEARS
  LIKELY THAT SURFACE BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
  COMPACT UPPER TROUGH AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A STALLED
  SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONT. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP
  AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE
  OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES SLIGHT RISK CALIBER SEVERE
  PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
 
  ..GUYER.. 03/08/2010
 

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Pacific-System could cause severe weather over TX/OK early next week - JAC, 3/4/2010, 7:17 am

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