Possible Severe System for MS-Valley/Midwest around the Weekend
Posted by JAC on 10/26/2009, 3:53 pm
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009 VALID 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY WHERE DEEPENING OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS OK/TX DAY4...THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY DAY5 WHERE FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO IL/IND ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 10/26/2009



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Possible Severe System for MS-Valley/Midwest around the Weekend - JAC, 10/26/2009, 3:53 pm
- Dang! - JAC, 10/27/2009, 1:08 pm
- CMC - JAC, 10/27/2009, 7:36 am
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