Re: Erika to affect PR and Northern Leewards
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 9/2/2009, 2:38 am
"AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
STORM ERIKA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7
WEST OR ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS."
Erika on satellite compared to Erika with recon is more confounding than any other storm I have seen. The NHC missed the center at 11PM. The LLC, which is very weak, is on the western edge of convection. Go 400 miles east of the center and then you will get out of the CDO. (although maybe we should make up a new term and call it EDO for Eastern Dense Overcast, lol) I think even the plane got confused by where the center is. They didn't transmit any data about a dropsonde and didn't put out a vortex. The plane turned around and is almost back to the center.
The center, based on wind shifts from recon, looks to be about 120 miles WSW (238 degrees) from the 11PM position. I'm not sure if it reforming, has got spun around down there by a larger center, or is just wobbling around. |
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